The Overly Competent Junior Employee

A small garden adorned the rooftop of Yuseong Investment Securities’ headquarters building.

Two figures stood out in this space, typically used as a respite for weary employees.

“Did you by any chance go into the Part Leader’s office yesterday?”

Dokyung, who had been working, was suddenly called out by Park Hyun-jae. Park asked with a chilly expression and tone.

“What do you mean…”

“I’m asking if you went into the Part Leader’s office yesterday to update him on the UK situation.”

“Yes, I did.”

“What did you say?”

Watching Park Hyun-jae throw out questions without explaining why, Dokyung felt a sense of rudeness.

“I told him it would be better not to invest in the UK.”

“Hah…”

At Dokyung’s answer, Park Hyun-jae moved his clenched fists back and forth as if unable to contain his anger.

Then, rubbing his face, he looked at Dokyung with a flushed complexion.

“Yoon Dokyung-ssi, do you know what’s happening in the UK right now?”

“…”

Dokyung silently stared at Park Hyun-jae, and seeing Dokyung not giving any answer, Park opened his mouth as if he were about to go mad.

“Do you know what’s happening with the UK pension funds right now?!”

Park Hyun-jae raised his voice as he spoke to Dokyung.

“The LDIs that pension funds invested in are starting to break in the UK right now.”

“I know.”

Dokyung answered as if to cut off Park Hyun-jae, who was trying to explain something he already knew.

“What?”

“I already know that UK pension funds are receiving margin calls.”

“You know that and you still gave such an answer to the Part Leader?”

Park Hyun-jae continued talking to Dokyung, seemingly unable to calm his anger.

“What comes after the margin calls? The Bank of England will intervene. This is different from other shocks. The scale of damage is known, so why don’t you see this as the right time?”

Dokyung agreed with parts of what Park Hyun-jae was saying.

The biggest enemy of a financial crisis was when financial institutions that caused problems concealed and hid the scale of damage.

As a result, it was hard to gauge how much needed to be injected, and there was often a secondary shock when the damage exceeded the initial bailout funds.

However, fortunately, in this UK pension crisis, the damages were being reported early, and it was becoming clear how much needed to be injected.

“Moreover, if the Bank of England declares bond purchases at this early stage, the market will stabilize. It might even be a situation where a bailout isn’t necessary.”

This crisis occurred due to rising bond yields. In other words, if the Bank of England stepped in and bought up bonds in the market, the number of circulating bonds would decrease, and naturally, bond yields would fall.

“The only certainty in the current situation is this: if we invest now, it will definitely return as profit. You’ve seen the recent volatility.”

The recent volatility in UK government bonds was tremendous. In a short period, bond yields rose very steeply, and returns fell rapidly.

It was a double-digit decline.

“In the current situation, if it becomes widely known that UK pension funds have received margin calls, and the Bank of England intervenes, bond yields will fall rapidly. How long do you think this will take?”

“…”

“I think all of this will happen within three days. So today is the last chance. Don’t you get it yet?”

Park Hyun-jae, who had been angry until just a moment ago, was now trying to persuade Dokyung.

“So if Yoon Dokyung-ssi would tell the Part Leader that it’s good to invest…”

“No. I won’t do it.”

“Why?”

“Rather, I don’t understand why you’re so obsessed with the UK, Assistant Manager.”

“No!”

Park Hyun-jae, who had shouted out loud, took a deep breath to compose himself and then spoke.

“The market has been tough this year. Our clients’ portfolio returns are terrible. Don’t you think we’ll get more if the returns are higher?”

Dokyung finally seemed to understand why Park Hyun-jae was so obsessed.

“As your senior, the advice I can give you is this: in this field, we have to find our own profits. In this industry, how much I earn determines my value.”

Perhaps the financial sector was where performance-based systems were most prominent.

The better the performance, the higher the bonus, and the money received was one’s value.

After all, it was the money received during the current bonus season that would help one move to a higher position when changing companies next time.

“We have all the information. You agree that the Bank of England will intervene, right? So if we enter now, it’s a 100% sure thing. Why are you refusing this?”

But Dokyung was different from the Park Hyun-jae standing in front of him.

“In our conversation so far, the only part of your opinion I could agree with was that the Bank of England will intervene.”

“So…”

“I can’t empathize with anything else.”

“What?”

Park Hyun-jae, who was about to launch into another lengthy explanation, looked at Dokyung in bewilderment.

“Anyway, it’s a difference in values, so even if I say more, you won’t believe the UK situation as I see it.”

Dokyung didn’t want to talk to Park Hyun-jae anymore.

If it were just a difference in investment values, he might have thought about persuading him. But beyond that, there was an insurmountable difference in values between them.

“Money? I like it too. No, I need money so badly because I’ve had more days without it than with it.”

“…”

“But I know my position better than anyone else.”

“What do you mean…”

“Assistant Manager, have you ever invested in stocks before joining a securities firm?”

Dokyung continued speaking, looking at Park Hyun-jae with a stern expression.

“Judging by your expression, it seems you haven’t.”

“…”

“The individual small investors who enter this market, most of them are just investors who want to follow along as much as others are growing their assets.”

Of course, there were people who entered to make large sums of money or to grow their assets quickly, but in Dokyung’s view, most small investors were people who just wanted to keep up with how others were growing their assets.

“There’s only one reason why such people seek experts like us. They have faith that we, as professionals, will help them lose less of their precious money.”

“How does that…”

“But with that trust, the client stamped our contract! And you’re saying you want to gamble with that trust as collateral!”

“What?”

Of course, Dokyung always thought about wanting to become rich, and he well understood that in this field, the money one receives is one’s value.

However, when choosing ‘how should I handle my assigned task?’, money had never been the priority.

The position Dokyung held was one where trust with the client was most important above all else, and it was a position that entailed true responsibility.

It required a different kind of responsibility than just evading legal liability through the warning about potential investment losses written in the contract.

“I don’t think that trust comes from just a contract.”

“I think you’re misunderstanding something, but from the client’s perspective, us making money for them is proof of trust.”

“Yes. Prioritizing investments according to the client’s tendencies rather than gambling would be better.”

As Dokyung rebutted without giving an inch to his words, Park Hyun-jae looked at him with a snort.

“Stop preaching and just say you won’t do it.”

“Yes. I can’t do it.”

“Fine. That’s your choice, Yoon Dokyung-ssi. Instead, shall we make a bet?”

Park Hyun-jae continued looking at Dokyung.

“If the situation unfolds according to my opinion this time, support my opinions from now on.”

“And if my opinion is correct?”

“I’m not shameless enough to stay in this team after being outdone by a newbie who just joined. Not me.”

Dokyung didn’t understand why Park Hyun-jae was digging his own grave. He seemed to have too much confidence in his judgment.

Dokyung had never avoided a fight brought by an opponent. At least not in a game he was sure to win.

“I’ll trust that you’ll keep your promise.”

Dokyung bowed and turned to head back to the office, while Park Hyun-jae stared at his retreating figure for a long time.

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“The UK situation seems to be stabilizing slowly.”

A week later, Dokyung looked at Assistant Manager Hong Se-jun who was speaking to him.

“Pardon?”

“The UK. Bond yields fell significantly overnight.”

Dokyung smiled at Hong Se-jun’s words.

Over the past week, the UK situation had caused global panic.

It started with an article from within the UK.

“Multiple pension fund investment products receive margin calls.”

“UK pension funds trapped in derivatives ‘Fear of default’.”

“From tax cut plans… to fears of pension fund defaults, UK becomes detonator for global financial markets.”

As both Dokyung and Park Hyun-jae had worried, problems erupted in the derivative investments of UK pension funds.

The market had already seen the pattern of several financial crises.

As the current pattern flowed similarly to those times, panic selling occurred in global financial markets.

However, this panic didn’t last for many days.

It was because of the news that came last night.

“Bank of England steps in as 447 trillion won evaporates from UK stock and bond markets.”

“Bank of England launches emergency bond-buying program worth 101 trillion won.”

“Bank of England: ‘Measure to stabilize market, not QE (Quantitative Easing)’.”

“Bank of England: ‘Will buy as much as needed for a set period’.”

As the Bank of England intervened in the market, pension funds that had been driven to the brink of default got some breathing room. This was because bond yields in global government bond markets, including UK government bonds, plummeted overnight.

The plunge in yields meant a rise in returns, so everyone seemed relieved.

Like Hong Se-jun sitting next to him.

“Why that expression? Does Dokyung-ssi think it will go further?”

“Ah! No, that’s not it.”

He thought there was no need to add more negative outlooks when perhaps everyone was hoping for the panic to end like this.

“It doesn’t seem like that’s not it. It’s okay with me, so tell me. I need to see other perspectives too. I’ll take that opinion into consideration as well.”

At Hong Se-jun’s words, Dokyung took a deep breath and began to speak.

“Market intervention for a set period, rather than unlimited, might actually increase market confusion.”

“Hmm…”

“What if the Bank of England’s bond-buying program ends the day after tomorrow?”

At Dokyung’s words, Hong Se-jun nodded as if he understood what he meant.

“Everything goes back to how it was before. Before the bond-buying program was created.”

“That’s right. The most fundamental cause, the tax cut plan, hasn’t been repealed, and the margin call problem for pension funds hasn’t been resolved. At times like this, what’s needed to hold the market together isn’t a ‘set period’ but ‘unlimited’.”

Hong Se-jun nodded as if agreeing with Dokyung’s words.

“The tax cut plan could be repealed, and the pension fund margin call problem could be resolved. But there’s one more real root cause that remains unaddressed.”

“The inflation problem, right?”

“That’s correct. Unless the root cause is removed, the market will fall into chaos again.”

Just as taking painkillers continuously doesn’t eliminate the source of a toothache.

The toothache could return at any time.

“And…”

Dokyung cautiously opened his mouth towards Hong Se-jun.

“The more I study this market, the more I feel this again…”

Dokyung continued with a stern expression.

“When things like this keep happening, there might be another shock lurking somewhere.”

The economic crisis that we remember as the IMF crisis of 1997 was like that too.

It started in Thailand, then Indonesia, and then our country. That’s how the Asian economic crisis came.

Other economic crises also started in one country, but then began to burst one after another.

“I hope not, but sadly, our history has repeated itself.”

Hong Se-jun sighed at Dokyung’s words.

“Do you have a religion you believe in, Dokyung-ssi?”

“No, I don’t.”

“I don’t believe in religion either, but there’s a verse from the Bible that I always keep in mind while working.”

Hong Se-jun continued speaking, looking quietly at Dokyung.

“Therefore keep watch, because you do not know on what day your Lord will come.”

Dokyung seemed to understand what those words meant.

“As you said, we should hope it’s not the case. But isn’t it our job to warn of such crises too? Let’s stay vigilant.”

“Yes, I understand.”

Ding ding-

At that moment, a warning sound began to ring not just for Dokyung and Hong Se-jun, but throughout the entire office, and everyone quickly looked at their monitors.

The faces of the two who confirmed the existence of the warning sound began to harden instantly.

It felt as if the day Hong Se-jun had spoken of had suddenly arrived.